Colorado's budget rule was built with the wrong measuring stick.
It limits what the state can spend based on the price of groceries and rent. But the state buys ambulances, road salt, and nurses. Those cost a lot more than they used to.
Here's what's happening, one idea for fixing it, and — honestly — what that fix will cost you. You'd still get your refund check. It would just be smaller.
We think the change is worth making. You might not. We've put the costs right next to the benefits so you can decide for yourself.
First, what TABOR actually does
In 1992, Colorado voters passed the Taxpayer's Bill of Rights. People call it TABOR. It does two main things.
You vote on every tax increase
No government in Colorado — state, city, county, school district — can raise a tax without asking you first.
There's a limit on what the state keeps
If more money comes in than the limit allows, the extra gets refunded to taxpayers.
Nobody is proposing to change the first one. Your vote on taxes stays exactly as it is. This is a conversation about how the limit in the second one gets calculated.
Here's the problem
Every year, the limit is allowed to grow by two things added together: how much Colorado's population grew, and how much consumer prices went up in the Denver area.
Consumer prices track what a household buys — groceries, rent, gas, a winter coat. That's a good way to measure your cost of living.
It's a poor way to measure the state's.
That's the situation. The state doesn't buy many groceries. It buys health care, school buildings, road materials, and the salaries of nurses, teachers, snowplow drivers and paramedics. Those prices have climbed much faster.
Change between 1992 and 2024. Source: Colorado Fiscal Institute, using federal price data.
Nobody voted for that gap. It's a side effect of which measuring stick got written into the rule back in 1992. And because each year builds on the last, a small gap compounds into a large one.
One idea for fixing it
Keep everything about TABOR that people like. Change one thing: how the limit's growth gets calculated.
Instead of population plus consumer prices, the limit would grow by population plus whichever is higher — how much Coloradans' incomes grew, or how much prices grew — using a five-year average so it doesn't swing wildly from year to year.
What changes and what doesn't
Population + consumer prices
Population + higher of income or prices
Now the part most pages skip
If the limit grows faster, the state keeps more and refunds less. That's real money out of your pocket, and we're not going to pretend otherwise.
Here's roughly what that looks like for a household like yours.
What would this have cost me?
Pick whichever way of answering suits you. Nothing is saved or sent anywhere.
What your community would get
Money the state keeps doesn't automatically go anywhere in particular. The legislature still decides that, the same as always. So what changes isn't a guarantee — it's whether the money exists to argue over.
Where you live changes what this means for you.
Your city or county already voted to keep its own money
Most local governments asked their own voters years ago for permission to keep revenue above their local limit, and most of those votes passed — 230 of 274 cities and 177 of 178 school districts. For these places, the local limit isn't the problem. What reaches them is money the state shares for roads, public health and human services. That's what this change would affect.
Your county never opted out — and it's getting tighter
Thirteen Colorado counties still operate under the original limit. Routt County, for example, currently gives back about 39% of the property tax it could otherwise collect, and that share grows every time property gets reassessed. These are the places where the effects show up as slower ambulance response, deferred bridge repairs, and shorter library hours.
Federal cuts are landing on Colorado right now
A federal law passed in 2025 is shifting costs to states starting in late 2026 — health coverage paperwork, food assistance administration, hospital funding. Colorado counties do that work. The state's limit doesn't rise when Congress hands down a bill. That's the squeeze this change is meant to relieve.
What people who disagree say
These are real arguments, made by serious people. We think the case for changing the formula is stronger, but you should hear the other side stated properly rather than knocked down.
"Government grew anyway."
It did. Over the years, more of state government moved to fees and state-run enterprises, which aren't counted the same way as taxes. Critics argue the limit was never as binding as reformers claim — and that the answer is to close those workarounds, not raise the limit.
"Colorado is doing fine."
Colorado's taxes are below the national average and the state's economy has performed well for decades. Some people see that as evidence the current rule is working exactly as intended.
"That refund is my money."
It is. Refunds are real dollars returned to households, and this change means smaller checks in good years. If you'd rather have the money than the services, that's a legitimate position — and this proposal is asking you to give something up.
Questions worth asking anyone — including us
- Which measurement replaces the current one, and who publishes it?
- What happens in a recession? Can the limit shrink?
- How much smaller will my refund be?
- Does this guarantee funding for anything specific, or just raise the ceiling?
- What does it do for my city or county in particular?
We're not asking you to sign anything, give us your email, or send money. We think you should have the numbers. What you do with them is your business.